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The Influence of Dynamics and Emissions Changes on China’s Wintertime Haze

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Bibliographische Detailangaben
Zeitschriftentitel: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Personen und Körperschaften: Sherman, Peter, Gao, Meng, Song, Shaojie, Ohiomoba, Patrick, Archibald, Alex, McElroy, Michael
In: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 58, 2019, 7, S. 1603-1611
Medientyp: E-Article
Sprache: Unbestimmt
veröffentlicht:
American Meteorological Society
Schlagwörter:
author_facet Sherman, Peter
Gao, Meng
Song, Shaojie
Ohiomoba, Patrick
Archibald, Alex
McElroy, Michael
Sherman, Peter
Gao, Meng
Song, Shaojie
Ohiomoba, Patrick
Archibald, Alex
McElroy, Michael
author Sherman, Peter
Gao, Meng
Song, Shaojie
Ohiomoba, Patrick
Archibald, Alex
McElroy, Michael
spellingShingle Sherman, Peter
Gao, Meng
Song, Shaojie
Ohiomoba, Patrick
Archibald, Alex
McElroy, Michael
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
The Influence of Dynamics and Emissions Changes on China’s Wintertime Haze
Atmospheric Science
author_sort sherman, peter
spelling Sherman, Peter Gao, Meng Song, Shaojie Ohiomoba, Patrick Archibald, Alex McElroy, Michael 1558-8424 1558-8432 American Meteorological Society Atmospheric Science http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-19-0035.1 <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Haze days induced by aerosol pollution in North and East China have posed a persistent and growing problem over the past few decades. These events are particularly threatening to densely populated cities such as Beijing. While the sources of this pollution are predominantly anthropogenic, natural climate variations may also play a role in allowing for atmospheric conditions conducive to formation of severe haze episodes over populated areas. Here, an investigation is conducted into the effects of changes in global dynamics and emissions on air quality in China’s polluted regions using 35 simulations developed from the Community Earth Systems Model Large Ensemble (CESM LENS) run over the period 1920–2100. It is shown that internal variability significantly modulates aerosol optical depth (AOD) over China; it takes roughly a decade for the forced response to balance the effects from internal variability even in China’s most polluted regions. Random forest regressions are used to accurately model (<jats:italic>R</jats:italic><jats:sup>2</jats:sup> &gt; 0.9) wintertime AOD using just climate oscillations, the month of the year, and emissions. How different phases of each oscillation affect aerosol loading is projected using these regressions. AOD responses are identified for each oscillation, with particularly strong responses from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). As ENSO can be projected a few months in advance and improvements in linear inverse modeling (LIM) may yield a similar predictability for the PDO, results of this study offer opportunities to improve the predictability of China’s severe wintertime haze events and to inform policy options that could mitigate subsequent health impacts.</jats:p> The Influence of Dynamics and Emissions Changes on China’s Wintertime Haze Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
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title The Influence of Dynamics and Emissions Changes on China’s Wintertime Haze
title_unstemmed The Influence of Dynamics and Emissions Changes on China’s Wintertime Haze
title_full The Influence of Dynamics and Emissions Changes on China’s Wintertime Haze
title_fullStr The Influence of Dynamics and Emissions Changes on China’s Wintertime Haze
title_full_unstemmed The Influence of Dynamics and Emissions Changes on China’s Wintertime Haze
title_short The Influence of Dynamics and Emissions Changes on China’s Wintertime Haze
title_sort the influence of dynamics and emissions changes on china’s wintertime haze
topic Atmospheric Science
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-19-0035.1
publishDate 2019
physical 1603-1611
description <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Haze days induced by aerosol pollution in North and East China have posed a persistent and growing problem over the past few decades. These events are particularly threatening to densely populated cities such as Beijing. While the sources of this pollution are predominantly anthropogenic, natural climate variations may also play a role in allowing for atmospheric conditions conducive to formation of severe haze episodes over populated areas. Here, an investigation is conducted into the effects of changes in global dynamics and emissions on air quality in China’s polluted regions using 35 simulations developed from the Community Earth Systems Model Large Ensemble (CESM LENS) run over the period 1920–2100. It is shown that internal variability significantly modulates aerosol optical depth (AOD) over China; it takes roughly a decade for the forced response to balance the effects from internal variability even in China’s most polluted regions. Random forest regressions are used to accurately model (<jats:italic>R</jats:italic><jats:sup>2</jats:sup> &gt; 0.9) wintertime AOD using just climate oscillations, the month of the year, and emissions. How different phases of each oscillation affect aerosol loading is projected using these regressions. AOD responses are identified for each oscillation, with particularly strong responses from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). As ENSO can be projected a few months in advance and improvements in linear inverse modeling (LIM) may yield a similar predictability for the PDO, results of this study offer opportunities to improve the predictability of China’s severe wintertime haze events and to inform policy options that could mitigate subsequent health impacts.</jats:p>
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author Sherman, Peter, Gao, Meng, Song, Shaojie, Ohiomoba, Patrick, Archibald, Alex, McElroy, Michael
author_facet Sherman, Peter, Gao, Meng, Song, Shaojie, Ohiomoba, Patrick, Archibald, Alex, McElroy, Michael, Sherman, Peter, Gao, Meng, Song, Shaojie, Ohiomoba, Patrick, Archibald, Alex, McElroy, Michael
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description <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Haze days induced by aerosol pollution in North and East China have posed a persistent and growing problem over the past few decades. These events are particularly threatening to densely populated cities such as Beijing. While the sources of this pollution are predominantly anthropogenic, natural climate variations may also play a role in allowing for atmospheric conditions conducive to formation of severe haze episodes over populated areas. Here, an investigation is conducted into the effects of changes in global dynamics and emissions on air quality in China’s polluted regions using 35 simulations developed from the Community Earth Systems Model Large Ensemble (CESM LENS) run over the period 1920–2100. It is shown that internal variability significantly modulates aerosol optical depth (AOD) over China; it takes roughly a decade for the forced response to balance the effects from internal variability even in China’s most polluted regions. Random forest regressions are used to accurately model (<jats:italic>R</jats:italic><jats:sup>2</jats:sup> &gt; 0.9) wintertime AOD using just climate oscillations, the month of the year, and emissions. How different phases of each oscillation affect aerosol loading is projected using these regressions. AOD responses are identified for each oscillation, with particularly strong responses from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). As ENSO can be projected a few months in advance and improvements in linear inverse modeling (LIM) may yield a similar predictability for the PDO, results of this study offer opportunities to improve the predictability of China’s severe wintertime haze events and to inform policy options that could mitigate subsequent health impacts.</jats:p>
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spelling Sherman, Peter Gao, Meng Song, Shaojie Ohiomoba, Patrick Archibald, Alex McElroy, Michael 1558-8424 1558-8432 American Meteorological Society Atmospheric Science http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-19-0035.1 <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Haze days induced by aerosol pollution in North and East China have posed a persistent and growing problem over the past few decades. These events are particularly threatening to densely populated cities such as Beijing. While the sources of this pollution are predominantly anthropogenic, natural climate variations may also play a role in allowing for atmospheric conditions conducive to formation of severe haze episodes over populated areas. Here, an investigation is conducted into the effects of changes in global dynamics and emissions on air quality in China’s polluted regions using 35 simulations developed from the Community Earth Systems Model Large Ensemble (CESM LENS) run over the period 1920–2100. It is shown that internal variability significantly modulates aerosol optical depth (AOD) over China; it takes roughly a decade for the forced response to balance the effects from internal variability even in China’s most polluted regions. Random forest regressions are used to accurately model (<jats:italic>R</jats:italic><jats:sup>2</jats:sup> &gt; 0.9) wintertime AOD using just climate oscillations, the month of the year, and emissions. How different phases of each oscillation affect aerosol loading is projected using these regressions. AOD responses are identified for each oscillation, with particularly strong responses from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). As ENSO can be projected a few months in advance and improvements in linear inverse modeling (LIM) may yield a similar predictability for the PDO, results of this study offer opportunities to improve the predictability of China’s severe wintertime haze events and to inform policy options that could mitigate subsequent health impacts.</jats:p> The Influence of Dynamics and Emissions Changes on China’s Wintertime Haze Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
spellingShingle Sherman, Peter, Gao, Meng, Song, Shaojie, Ohiomoba, Patrick, Archibald, Alex, McElroy, Michael, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, The Influence of Dynamics and Emissions Changes on China’s Wintertime Haze, Atmospheric Science
title The Influence of Dynamics and Emissions Changes on China’s Wintertime Haze
title_full The Influence of Dynamics and Emissions Changes on China’s Wintertime Haze
title_fullStr The Influence of Dynamics and Emissions Changes on China’s Wintertime Haze
title_full_unstemmed The Influence of Dynamics and Emissions Changes on China’s Wintertime Haze
title_short The Influence of Dynamics and Emissions Changes on China’s Wintertime Haze
title_sort the influence of dynamics and emissions changes on china’s wintertime haze
title_unstemmed The Influence of Dynamics and Emissions Changes on China’s Wintertime Haze
topic Atmospheric Science
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-19-0035.1